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The Internet Number.FAQ
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1994-10-09
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The Internet Number FAQ
John S. Quarterman
Copyright (c) 1994 MIDS
mids@tic.com
From Matrix News, 4(6), June 1994
Contact: mids@tic.com, +1-512-451-7602, fax: +1-512-452-0127.
I've been asked the same questions so frequently by reporters,
researchers, and other network users that it seems appropriate
to answer them in a FAQ. This article, unlike most in Matrix News,
is freely redistributable. Just redistribute the whole thing,
don't modify it, and don't pretend you wrote it.
Can I ask you a few questions about the Internet?
Sure. But please read this FAQ first, and then ask any of your
questions that it doesn't answer.
Can I call you on the telephone to ask?
Please send electronic mail instead.
How many computers are on the Internet?
The usual numbers quoted for this come from Mark Lottor's Internet
Domain Survey. It reported 2,217,000 Internet hosts as of January 1994.
Please note that this is a count of hosts with IP addresses,
which is not the same thing as hosts with *reachable* IP addresses.
How many computers are actually reachable on the Internet, then?
Lottor's January 1994 survey estimates 576,000 reachable hosts;
this number was extrapolated from attempts to reach 5% of the
total number of hosts surveyed.
Are there no better measures for the number of hosts on the Internet?
From the TIC/MIDS Internet Demographic Survey of January 1994,
in which we asked most of the organizations on the Internet how many of
their hosts were reachable, and for which we got 13% usable responses,
we estimate 741,000 reachable hosts.
So which of those three numbers should I believe?
Whichever one you like the best. We think 741,000 reachable hosts
in January 1994 is approximately correct, within a factor of two.
The real number is of course bigger now. See below for a current
estimate.
What's a host?
A computer that one or more people use directly, by logging in
or typing at a keyboard connected to it, to access network services.
A computer that provides those services is called a server.
The same computer can be both a host and server. There are also
computers on the Internet that are neither; routers, for example,
direct traffic but do not normally house users or provide other
services to them.
What's IP?
The Internet Protocol, which is the glue that holds the Internet together.
What about BITNET, UUCP, FidoNet, WWIVnet, etc.?
You asked about the Internet. We hold to a traditional definition
of the Internet as the largest collection of computers and networks
that use IP to exchange information.
But people can send mail from those other networks; doesn't that count?
Indeed it does. It makes them part of the Matrix of computers and
networks that exchange electronic mail. The Matrix is much bigger
than the Internet. But if you want to retrieve a file interactively (FTP),
log in on another host (TELNET), or use archie (file indexes),
Gopher (menu browsing), WAIS (database keyword searches), WWW (hypertext),
or Mosaic (a point and click color graphical interface to all of those),
you can't do that unless you're connected to the Internet.
How much bigger is the Matrix than the Internet?
At least twice as big.
How many users are on the Internet?
By the traditional MIDS method of multiplying Lottor's host number
by 7.5, 16,627,500 as of January 1994. Applying the same factor
to Lottor's estimate of reachable hosts yields an estimate of
4,320,000 users.
By extrapolation from the Internet Demographic Survey,
2,463,000 who make at least minimal use of the Internet, and
5,665,000 who log in on computers connected to the Internet,
and thus can use the Internet if they want to.
No more than 19,600,000 since that's how many total people
we estimate in all the organizations that are connected
to the Internet, whether those people have access to the
Internet or not.
Why 7.5 users per host?
Because it's half way between 5 and 10, and before the Internet
Demographic Survey, between 5 and 10 was the best guess anybody
had for that factor.
What is the real factor for users per Internet host, then?
Apparently about 3.5. It has been falling for many years,
as workstations and PCs joined the Internet. Now it is
probably climbing, due to systems like Delphi and America Online
joining the Internet with up to hundreds of thousands of
users per host, not to mention many smaller login hosts
that sell login accounts to users so they can access the Internet.
How fast is the Internet growing?
About doubling every year. Lottor's figures show 80% growth
rate per year. Other measures show rates from 55% to 135%.
We choose to split the difference and say 100% annually.
The one thing that is for sure is that the Internet is growing
exponentially, and has been doing so steadily since 1988.
If that growth rate continues, in what year will everyone on
the planet be connected to the Internet?
About the year 2003. Of course, we don't think that growth rate will
continue to be the same for the next ten years. We have reason to
believe it will actually increase next year....
Doesn't anybody have exact numbers to answer any of these questions?
No, no one does. You've just read the best figures there are.
If you want better figures, stay tuned. We're in the process
of conducting the Second Internet Demographic Survey.
The Internet is distributed by nature. This is its strongest feature,
since no single entity is in control, and its pieces run themselves,
cooperating to form the network of networks that is the Internet.
However, because no single entity is control, nobody knows everything
about the Internet. Measuring it is especially hard because some parts
choose to limit access to themselves to various degrees. So, instead
of measurement, we have various forms of surveying and estimation.
Can't you just give us some simple numbers for now, not last January?
Sure, we can extrapolate from the January 1994 Internet Demographic
Survey and the known 100% growth rate to estimate 1 million hosts and
3.5 million users of the Internet as of June 1994.
Aren't those numbers a lot lower than the others I've seen?
Yes, mostly because the other numbers are usually based on
Lottor's raw host numbers, which include a lot of hosts
on networks that are deliberately firewalled so you can't
get there from the Internet proper. These firewalled
networks are mostly enterprise IP networks.
What's an enterprise IP network?
Well, an enterprise network is one used by a company to support
its internal operations, with access usually limited to employees.
An enterprise IP network is an enterprise network based on IP.
Since such a network uses Internet technology, it is easy to
arrange for its users to use Internet services. Every big
computer vendor, HP, IBM, Intel, etc., has an enterprise IP network,
as do many other companies, such as GM, Exxon, Philips, Sony, etc.
Such companies normally firewall their enterprise IP networks
so that only employees can use them. Lots of universities
are firewalling now, too.
But can't people on those networks get to the Internet?
Many of them can. According to the Internet Demographic Survey,
about 1,410,000 hosts and 5,000,000 users could use Internet services,
whether those hosts were reachable or not. That was in January 1994.
For June 1994, we estimate 2,000,000 hosts and 7,000,000 users
of Internet services both from enterprise IP networks and from the
Internet proper.
Can we use these numbers in our article or book?
Sure, just attribute us: John S. Quarterman, Editor,
Matrix News, Austin, Texas. Also include our informational
electronic mail address, mids@tic.com, if you possibly can.
Can you tell us more?
If you're a subscriber to Matrix News (our monthly newsletter) or
Matrix Maps Quarterly (our color map publication), you get the results
of our investigations as we produce them. If you're not, you can send
mail to mids@tic.com for information on how to subscribe or order back
issues. Or you can wait until we post some of our results for public
viewing some months later, for example through our FTP, Gopher, and WWW
servers at ftp.tic.com, gopher.tic.com, and www.tic.com. We're always
happy to discuss consulting arrangements, as well.
Wasn't that a shameless commercial advertisement?
Yes. Our subscribers support our investigations,
which is how you got these numbers....
You may also be interested in our books:
Quarterman, John S. and Smoot Carl-Mitchell, The Internet
Connection: System Connectivity and Configuration, Addison-
Wesley, Reading, MA, 1994. $32.25. ISBN 0-201-54237-4.
Carl-Mitchell, Smoot and John S. Quarterman, Practical
Internetworking with TCP/IP and UNIX, Addison-Wesley,
Reading, MA, 1993. $45.75. ISBN 0-201-58629-0.
Quarterman, John S. and Susanne Wilhelm, UNIX, POSIX, and Open
Systems: The Open Standards Puzzle, p. 446, Addison-Wesley,
Reading, MA, 1993. $42.50. ISBN 0-201-52772-3.
Quarterman, John S., The Matrix: Computer Networks and
Conferencing Systems Worldwide, p. 746, Digital Press,
Bedford, MA, 1990. $50. Digital order number EY-C176E-DP-SS;
Digital Press ISBN 155558-033-5; Prentice-Hall ISBN 0-13-
565607-9.
Leffler, Samuel J., Marshall Kirk McKusick, Michael J. Karels,
and John S. Quarterman, The Design and Implementation of the
4.3BSD UNIX Operating System, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA,
1989. $40 ISBN 0-201-06196-1.
Matrix Information and Directory Services, Inc. (MIDS)
mids@tic.com
+1-512-451-7602
fax: +1-512-452-0127
1106 Clayton Lane, Suite 500W
Austin, TX 78723
U.S.A.
.